Lauren Boebert | It would be a criticism of Trump’s brand of Republicanism and an indication that perhaps Republicans aren’t prepared to hold their noses to the polls if the Trump supporter lost in a strongly red area.

In a race that was thought to be locked in her favor, Colorado Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert, who burst onto the political scene in 2020 as a young Second Amendment evangelist and quickly solidified her image as a Trump-thumping MAGA Republican, is facing what could be the biggest upset of the 2022 election cycle.

As votes started to close on Tuesday night, Boebert tweeted, “The red wave has begun.” But on Wednesday morning, as the sun rose over the Rockies, the fiery conservative saw herself falling far short of expectations. She was one of many GOP candidates whose elections were still in the air and may lose her party control of both houses.

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With 90% of the votes tabulated, Democratic competitor Adam Frisch, a former member of the Aspen City Council, is in the lead, 50.6% to 49.4%.

Hey Coloradans, are you prepared to bid farewell to the dishonest, self-serving, and morally bankrupt Lauren Boebert and bring about genuine change in Western and Southern Colorado? Frisch tweeted to voters on Tuesday afternoon.

He announced early morning that the election was too close to call, saying, “It’s getting late, and we’re going to let the vote counters do their work for the [rest] of the night.”

The vast 3rd Congressional District in Colorado, which contains the affluent mountain communities of Aspen and Steamboat Springs and expansive cattle ranches, was thought to be a safe haven for incumbent Boebert. The election forecaster at FiveThirtyEight gave her a 97-in-100 probability of winning.

In a state where conservatives have always been independent and rejected radical candidates and the kind of groupthink that tends to catapult them to Congress, a Boebert defeat in a firmly red seat would be a stunning repudiation of Trump’s style of Republicanism. It would imply that maybe Republicans won’t go to the polls to win a majority in Congress.

The Republican that Boebert beat in the GOP primary endorsed Frisch, who campaigned as a pragmatic moderate, and he also set up a website called “Republicans for Frisch.” He has portrayed her as Trump’s right-hand woman and an extreme candidate who hasn’t done their district’s interests in Washington justice.

Robert’s two years in the House have been characterized by her promotion of QAnon conspiracy theories, denial of the outcome of the 2020 presidential election, and making false and racist accusations against her rivals and Democratic House colleagues. She has called Republican primary opponent and conservative Republican Rep. 

Ilhan Omar, a Muslim member of “the jihad squad,” referred to her GOP primary rival, a conservative Republican with a gay son, as “a groomer.”

Before election day, President Joe Biden focused on candidates like Boebert in a significant address on democracy, asking voters to reject their brand of conservatism.

He remarked that we don’t frequently have to decide if our vote would protect democracy or endanger it in a regular year. But this year, we are.